Category Archives: Uncategorized

Texas Hold ‘Em Odds from 1 to 52

[SS] Stan the Stat loved lists almost as much as he loved numbers. His favorite Go-Go’s song? “Girl of 100 Lists”.1 Slacker. Stan had created that many by the time he was seven years old. So it was no surprise when he proudly unveiled his latest list of numbers, Texas Hold ‘Em Odds from 1 to 52. “One for each card in the deck”, Stan boasted. “Of course, I had several choices for many of the odds, so I tried for variety. By coincidence, the last one stumped me the longest time.”

A♠ 1 to 1 Odds of finishing with a pair on the river with unpaired hole cards 1.08 to 1 48.15%
A♥ 2 to 1 Odds of improving from 3-of-a-kind to a full house or quads on the turn or river 1.99 to 1 33.40%
A♦ 3 to 1 Odds of being dealt suited cards 3.25 to 1 23.53%
A♣ 4 to 1 Odds of hitting a flush draw on the river 4.11 to 1 19.57%
K♠ 5 to 1 Odds of being dealt connectors 5.38 to 1 15.69%
K♥ 6 to 1 Odds of being dealt at least one Ace 5.70 to 1 14.93%
K♦ 7 to 1 Odds of hitting a 3-outer on the turn or river 7.01 to 1 12.49%
K♣ 8 to 1 Odds of flopping a flush draw with suited cards 8.14 to 1 10.94%
Q♠ 9 to 1 Odds of flopping an 8-out straight draw from max connectors (JT-54) 8.57 to 1 10.45%
Q♥ 10 to 1 Odds of being dealt two cards that are Jacks or higher 10.05 to 1 9.05%
Q♦ 11 to 1 Odds of filling an inside straight draw on the turn 10.75 to 1 8.51%
Q♣ 12 to 1 Odds of not flopping an overcard with pocket Sevens 11.73 to 1 7.86%
J♠ 13 to 1 Odds of being dealt 2-gappers 12.81 to 1 7.24%
J♥ 14 to 1 Odds of hitting a 3-outer on the river 14.33 to 1 6.52%
J♦ 15 to 1 Odds of completing a flush by the river with suited cards 14.63 to 1 6.40%
J♣ 16 to 1 Odds of being dealt a pocket pair 16.00 to 1 5.88%
10♠ 17 to 1 Odds of being dealt unsuited 2-gappers (e.g., 85o) 17.42 to 1 5.43%
10♥ 18 to 1 Odds of a monochromatic flop 18.32 to 1 5.18%
10♦ 19 to 1 Odds of beating KK with K2 offsuit (suit dominated, the worst all-in preflop matchup) 18.69 to 1 5.08%
10♣ 20 to 1 Odds of being dealt connected cards, 10 or higher 19.72 to 1 4.83%
9♠ 21 to 1 Odds of being dealt a pair of Fives or better 21.10 to 1 4.52%
9♥ 22 to 1 Odds of hitting a backdoor straight (e.g., from 876) 21.52 to 1 4.44%
9♦ 23 to 1 Odds of hitting a backdoor flush 23.02 to 1 4.16%
9♣ 24 to 1 Odds of a single opponent with random hole cards having quads on a 3-of-a-kind flop 24.00 to 1 4.00%
8♠ 25 to 1 Odds of being dealt any suited connectors 24.50 to 1 3.92%
8♥ 26 to 1 Odds of making a straight or better on the turn with random hole cards 26.15 to 1 3.68%
8♦ 27 to 1 Odds of making 3-of-a-kind by the turn with random hole cards 26.81 to 1 3.60%
8♣ 28 to 1 Odds of a 3-card straight flop 27.78 to 1 3.48%
7♠ 29 to 1 Odds of being dealt suited 2-gappers 29.14 to 1 3.32%
7♥ 30 to 1 Odds of the board having no overcards by the turn with pocket Sevens 30.48 to 1 3.18%
7♦ 31 to 1 Odds of the board having no overcards by the river with pocket Eights 31.21 to 1 3.10%
7♣ 32 to 1 Odds of being dealt suited cards Tens or higher 32.15 to 1 3.02%
6♠ 33 to 1 Odds of hitting a backdoor half-inside straight (e.g., 976) 32.78 to 1 2.96%
6♥ 34 to 1 Odds of hitting a backdoor flush to chop the pot when your opponent flops the worst flush (e.g., holding 32s) 34.36 to 1 2.83%
6♦ 35 to 1 Odds of making a full house or better on the river with random hole cards 34.71 to 1 2.80%
6♣ 36 to 1 Odds of nobody holding an Ace, King, or Queen at a 6-handed table 35.94 to 1 2.71%
5♠ 37 to 1 Odds of flopping an 8-out straight draw from 3-gappers 37.28 to 1 2.61%
5♥ 38 to 1 Odds of making a full house on the river with random hole cards 37.52 to 1 2.60%
5♦ 39 to 1 Odds of improving a pair to a full house on the turn and river 39.04 to 1 2.50%
5♣ 40 to 1 Odds of being dealt a weak suited Ace (A9s-A2s) 40.44 to 1 2.41%
4♠ 41 to 1 Odds of hitting a 1-outer on the river when three players are all-in (e.g., QQ vs. KK vs. AA on AKQ2 board) 41.00 to 1 2.38%
4♥ 42 to 1 Odds of making exactly Jack high on the turn with random hole cards 42.28 to 1 2.31%
4♦ 43 to 1 Odds of being dealt a pair of Tens or better 43.20 to 1 2.26%
4♣ 44 to 1 Odds of flopping a four flush holding unsuited cards 43.55 to 1 2.24%
3♠ 45 to 1 Odds of hitting an inside straight flush draw on the river 45.00 to 1 2.17%
3♥ 46 to 1 Odds of being dealt max stretch suited connectors (JT-54) 46.36 to 1 2.11%
3♦ 47 to 1 Odds of hitting a runner-runner 1-gap straight flush or a full house/quads missing three board outs (e.g., 8d8h vs. Ad5d + Jd9d2d [Jh, 9h, 2h mucked]) 46.83 to 1 2.09%
3♣ 48 to 1 Odds of flopping two pairs using both unpaired hole cards 48.49 to 1 2.02%
2♠ 49 to 1 Odds of at least one player holding 4-of-a-kind or better if 10 players make it to the river 49.21 to 1 1.99%
2♥ 50 to 1 Odds of an opponent holding a pair of Aces when you have an Ace at a 9-handed table 50.04 to 1 1.96%
2♦ 51 to 1 Odds of making a flush or better by the turn with random hole cards 51.43 to 1 1.91%
2♣ 52 to 1 Odds of hitting a runner-runner full house or quads missing one hole out (e.g., 88 vs. A7s vs. + QT2s [8 mucked])2 51.56 to 1 1.90%

[SS] “Plenty of Google hits for ’52 to 1′ too.”

[RR] “But they all really meant ‘1 in 52′, or ’51 to 1’?” Roderick the Rock surmised.

[SS] “Exactly right. I almost gave up and changed the list to go from ‘1 in 1’ to ‘1 in 52’, but I hated having the pointless ‘1 in 1’ (‘Odds of there being an error in this list’?). I ended up calculating dozens of runner-runner outs until I found one that worked.”

Footnotes:

  1. Track three on the Go-Go’s 1982 album Vacation was somehow never released as a single ;-). Jane Wiedlen’s lists included: “things I love”, “what shall I wear”, “who have I kissed”, and “things I must get done today”.
  2. Added missing 52 to 1 odds on July 7, 2014.
Tags:
Category:

A Decade After Chris Moneymaker

[LL] “Who’s your favorite World Series of Poker Main Event champion?” Leroy the Lion inquired of Roderick the Rock.

[RR] “Chris Moneymaker. His win inspired me, like a lot of people, to play Texas Hold ‘Em”, Rod replied. “I didn’t know he had won right away, because I was watching the tournament1 on ESPN’s recorded broadcast, but I was rooting hard for him for the last few tables as if I could affect an event that was 2,400 miles away and had already happened.”

[LL] “Truth is stranger than fiction. I’m sure the conspiracy theorists had a field day when a charming but financially struggling Tennesseean with a wife and newborn daughter, got in through a satellite he didn’t want to be in to enter a second satellite he didn’t want to win to earn a buy-in into the Main Event he didn’t want to play. Moneymaker then sold off part of his action to a guy named Gamble, somehow got picked to win it all by a guy named Diamond, and then outlasted 838 opponents through five days of play to win the most coveted bracelet in the poker world.”

[RR] “And the unbelievable name! M-O-N-E-Y-M-A-K-E-R. Unreal. His German ancestors2 may have created silver and gold coins, but Chris popularized a new way of chasing the American dream.”

[LL] “Some people say that the boom was coming no matter what because of the enlightenment of hole cams, the proliferation of shows on TV, and the convenience of Internet poker. But there’s no way that Sammy Farha3, as charismatic as he is, would have had nearly as big an effect.”

[RR] “Yeah, he was already a professional poker player, so the big jump may have had to wait another year, when amateur Greg Raymer won the main event.”

[LL] “Wouldn’t have been the same. Fossilman4 was a *lawyer* ;-). Maybe Jamie Gold if he isn’t too smarmy for people.”

[RR] “But who knows what else would have changed if Moneymaker hadn’t won. Maybe Gold never gets involved in the TV show where he meets Johnny Chan, who then tutors him in Hold ‘Em, and doesn’t enter the 2006 tournament.”

[LL] “Hard to believe Moneymaker’s win was ten years ago. The size of the Main Event field peaked three years later, when Gold won his wheelbarrow of money, but has withstood the shutdown of the major online poker sites in the U.S.”

[RR] “This year there were 6,352 entrants, roughly what it’s been every year since 20075, and I expect it will stay around there until the U.S. government legalizes online gambling again.”

[LL] “States are starting to, so my fingers are crossed that it’ll be in the next few years.”

Footnotes:

  1. The end of the tournament was broadcast on ESPN in prime time two weeks after it happened.
  2. The family’s last name was Nurmacher until they moved to England and translated it to Moneymaker.
  3. Sammy Farha finished in second place after a bathroom discussion failed to complete a deal to split the top two prizes. Moneymaker credits that discussion with giving him a big strategic edge as he figured Farha would want to keep pots smaller because of his perceived skill advantage.
  4. Greg Raymer is a fossil collector and uses one as a card protector.
  5. 6,352 is within a thousand of 2010’s 7,319, the highest total of the last seven events and only six below 2007’s 6,358, the previous low of that period.

Related Links:

Tags:
Category:

A New Game in Town – THETA Poker Pro

As the Hold ‘Em players trickled in to the comfortably furnished suburban basement, Deb the Duchess, dubbed because her poker skills resemble those of 2009 “The Apprentice” runner-up Annie Duke, sits on a sofa playing an iPhone game. Tyrone the Telephone, nicknamed for his calling station style of play, is surprised that it isn’t her usual Words With Friends.

[TT] “Hi, Duchess. Has some unspeakably sad tragedy occurred? / Or are you waiting for all your opponents to play a word?” Tyrone ventured.

[DD] “I actually haven’t checked recently. I’m trying to get in some last-minute practicing for today’s tournament”, responded Deb.

[TT] “Didn’t know that you played online poker / I used to also, but now I’m broker.”

[DD] “Actually, I haven’t played a single hand online since the Black Friday shutdown1. This game’s just on the device, no network connection needed, which is great because my phone’s only getting one bar here.”

[TT] “But every one of those apps is incredibly weak / I taught my parrot how to win by pecking his beak.”

[DD] “Very funny. No, this one’s quite good. And totally configurable, too. I set it up for a 24-player tournament with 6,000 starting chips and a medium-paced blind structure, just like we play here.”

[TT] “You’ve got me enthralled / What’s this cool app called?”

[DD] “It’s THETA Poker Pro2. Stupid name, but it’s got by far the best artificial intelligence engine in the App Store. It also has a career mode, which is what I’d been playing until today. I’m trying to build my bankroll up from nothing to a $10,000 buy-in into the World Championship. I skipped the Easy and Medium difficulty levels, which are great for beginners and intermediates but too weak for me, and I’ve won the first three of the seven Hard events. Really fun. Super challenging. Tons of features3.”

[DD] I love that I can play a hand any time I want. I have the speed cranked all the way up, so I can get a few dozen hands in every morning just waiting in line for my cappuccino at Starebacks4. I feel like the practice is really improving my game. It’ll be the best $3.995 I’ve ever spent on an app if I just cash in tonight’s tournament :-).

[TT] “Forget about its paltry little price / Does the app run on my Android device?”

[DD] “Sorry, THETA Poker Pro only runs on iPhones, iPod touches, and iPads6. But isn’t your cell phone contract just about up?”

[TT] “Hold ‘Em game in the palm of my hand / Whose strength does my attention demand / Configurable at my command / Might motivate a phone switch unplanned”.

Footnotes:

  1. On Black Friday, April 13, 2011, the U.S Department of Justice shut down the three biggest online poker sites serving the U.S. market: PokerStars, Full Tilt Poker, and Absolute Poker/Ultimate Bet. Players on PokerStars were able to cash out their bankrolls shortly thereafter. Players on Full Tilt Poker are waiting for help from the U.S. government to do the same. Unfortunately, players on Absolute Poker/Ultimate Bet lost everything.
  2. The full name of the universal app is THETA Poker Pro – Texas Hold ‘Em, available in the App Store starting tomorrow (February 1, 2013).
  3. THETA Poker Pro Features:
    • Human-Like AI: Play against the strongest and most realistic artificial intelligence players on any cell phone or tablet.
    • Incredible Tournament Details: Muck your cards to fold; shove all your chips to the middle to go all-in; view complete blind and payout schedules; experience table balancing, chipping up, dead buttons, tighter bubble play, and more.
    • Convenient Twitter, Facebook, and Email Integration: Share pictures or text of your favorite hand or your worst bad beat with a swipe and a few taps.
    • Clean, iOS-Optimized User Interface: Simple and obvious taps and swipes for all actions with an efficient and unique betting mechanism. Portrait or Landscape. Optimized for one-handed operation on all but the full-size iPad.
    • Full Sound and Music Control: Experience real gaming sounds while listening to your favorite local music (including sort-by-album and other special features) or streaming audio like Pandora, Spotify, Shoutcast, and Songza.
    • Complete Hand History: View or email any hand recap from the current event; optional Rabbit Hunting to show what might have been. Send yourself an entire tournament to analyze on your Mac or PC.
    • Advanced Heads Up Display: Tap on any opponent to see their HUD statistics (How tight are they playing? Should you respect their early-position three-bet?). View your own HUD data to improve your play and see how your opponents might perceive you.
    • Extensive Statistics: See how you’re doing in the current event, the current career level, or overall for a given career difficulty or custom mode.
    • Flexible Configuration: Choose the event type (Freezeout Tournaments, Shootouts, or Ring Games), table size, tournament size, play speed (up to 1,000 hands per hour!), and much more.
    • Total VoiceOver Accessibility: Play without even looking at the screen as all actions are announced out loud. THETA Poker Pro is the first and only fully VoiceOver accessible Texas Hold ‘Em app!
  4. Have our fictional characters drink your coffee, wear your clothes, and name-drop your products accidentally-on-purpose every week in this space. Inquire at mostlykiddingbutitwasworthashot@thetapoker.com.
  5. THETA Poker Pro is $3.99 in the U.S. and the equivalent Tier 4 price in other countries (e.g., €2.99 in the European Union).
  6. iOS 5.x or higher required. THETA Poker Pro is a universal app with full support for all current iPads, iPod touches, and iPhones, including native support for the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus.

Related Links:

Tags:
Category: